Today:
Upcoming:
Antigen Presentation in the Tumor Ecosystem
Maria Tsoumakidou
Tue, 8 Apr 2025, 16:00
Quasinormal Modes Perspective on Thermalization Dynamics
Michal Heller
Wed, 9 Apr 2025, 16:30
Quasinormal modes perspective on thermalization dynamics
Prof. Michal P. Heller
Wed, 9 Apr 2025, 16:30
TBD
Marine Prunier(MPIA)
Thu, 10 Apr 2025, 11:00

Bayesian model selection in cosmology (and beyond)

Benedikt Schosser , ARI
Making an informed choice between competing physical models becomes increasingly important in the era of precision cosmology. Central to model selection is a trade-off between performing a good fit and low model complexity: A model of higher complexity should only be favoured over a simpler model if it provides significantly better fits. In Bayesian terms, this can be achieved by considering the evidence ratio, enabling choices between two competing models. We generalise this concept by constructing Markovian random walks in model space governed by the logarithmic evidence ratio. This is in analogy to the logarithmic likelihood ratio in parameter estimation problems. We apply our methodology to selecting a polynomial for the dark energy equation of state function based on data for the supernova distance-redshift relation.
ARI Institute Colloquium
7 Nov 2024, 11:15
ARI, Moenchhofstrasse 12-14, Seminarraum 1.OG

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